SpaceX briefly falls below $150, rebounds on retail buying; SIG initiates with Neutral rating and $170 target

① SpaceX fell below $150 after the opening bell on Tuesday, then rebounded quickly amid retail dip-buying sentiment.
② Susquehanna International Group initiated coverage with a Neutral rating and a $170 price target. The analyst said that while the prospects for rocket launches, Starlink and AI businesses are viewed favorably, considerable uncertainty remains at present, and investors are advised to wait for a better entry point.

June 23 — After the opening bell on Tuesday evening Beijing time, SpaceX, the rocket and AI company owned by the world’s richest man Musk, briefly extended a three-day losing streak and touched a low of $147.11 during the session.

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The rocket giant’s drop below the $150 integer mark appeared to trigger retail buying sentiment. By the close, SpaceX shares, after a brief rapid rally at the open, finished the day at $156.

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(Source: TradingView)

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Meanwhile, Charles Minervino, an analyst at Susquehanna International Group (SIG), published an initiation report on SpaceX, assigning a Neutral rating and a $170 price target.

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Charles gave a generally positive view of SpaceX’s businesses. He noted that SpaceX dominates the rocket launch sector, its Starlink satellite internet business still has room for growth, and the AI segment built around the xAI acquisition earlier this year is still in its early stages.

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The analyst expects SpaceX revenue to grow at a 56% compound annual growth rate from 2025 to 2030, reaching $173 billion by 2030; EBITDA is expected to rise from $6.6 billion to $74.9 billion over the same period.

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As for why not a Buy rating, Charles believes the core issue is that the company’s current valuation already requires very aggressive growth to justify, while some of SpaceX’s markets remain relatively unproven, leaving a wide range of uncertainty over future outcomes.

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Charles wrote: This creates considerable risk to future expectations, so we recommend waiting for a better entry point.

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It is understood that the $170 valuation uses a sum-of-the-parts method. The space business is valued at 40 times 2028 enterprise value/sales, the satellite internet business at 45 times 2028 enterprise value/EBITDA, and the AI business at 9 times 2028 enterprise value/sales.

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The report also pointed out several catalysts that could drive the stock price higher or lower.

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The successful development of Starship will be the core of the long-term investment thesis. This next-generation fully reusable rocket not only supports the deployment of next-generation Starlink satellites, but also underpins SpaceX’s orbital data center vision.

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Therefore, delays to this rocket, which are common within Musk’s business empire, would also constitute a risk factor for the stock price. In addition, the company’s AI business carries customer concentration risk. The report notes that SpaceX’s computing leasing contracts with Anthropic and Google together represent approximately $26 billion in annualized revenue, but both parties can terminate the contracts after the initial trial period.

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SpaceX also launched a pilot for a new business on Tuesday: the company sent a reusable capsule into space aboard Falcon 9 and recovered it, paving the way for the in-orbit manufacturing program Starfall. The program aims to leverage the unique conditions of space, such as microgravity and higher radiation levels, to offer new possibilities for manufacturing pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, food, and beauty products.

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